Following a recent meeting with the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (MNR), Minden Hills mayor Bob Carter is cautiously optimistic there will be no major flooding in Minden this spring.
However, he said weather, such as rapidly warming temperatures with rain, can quickly impact the situation.
Carter said Parks Canada also participates in the MNR meetings to update municipal officials on conditions.
The mayor and County councillor said, “most, if not all, of the lakes are at, or below, average for right now. There’s storage capacity in the lakes.”
He added that at some point in the spring, when enough snow has melted, known as freshet, Parks Canada begins to put logs in at dams to start holding water back so there is enough for the summer.
Now, no logs are being added and water is flowing through reservoir lakes into rivers.
Carter said he asked about conditions to the south of the County, particularly Peterborough and the Otonabee River. He’s been told Kawartha Lakes is melting at normal levels. “There’s no problem with the amount of water that we can send down. Sometimes you have to hold water up here, not to flood somewhere down there. There’s enough capacity through the whole Kawartha Lakes system and through the Otonabee River right now; everything is moving as is normal.”
Carter added that moisture from the snowpack is considered to be “above average, but not wildly above average.” He noted the MNR works off a 14-day weather forecast and “everything at this point is reasonable. But all it takes is one weekend of really hot weather with a rainstorm.”
He added the lack of frost in the ground before the snow came is helping with a more gradual melt.
The mayor said the MNR is closely monitoring the situation and is in contact with townships as needed.
While “cautiously optimistic,” he added, “our sandbagging equipment was taken out and lubricated and put in a totallyready state. We’ve got plans to acquire any sand that we need. The roads and fire departments are working every day on it.
“We are working with MNR to keep on top of everything. It really comes down to what the weather does. It looks like it’s going to be a bit drier according to the forecast, so that’s good for us. At the same time, weather is a bit fickle.”
The MNR told The Highlander March 12, that as of early March, Haliburton County’s snow depth and water content in the snowpack are higher than normal, ranging from 66-81 cm. “Flooding risk depends on snowmelt rates and weather patterns, which the MNR is closely monitoring.
A ministry spokesperson added they track snow and water conditions daily and adjust dam operations as needed.
“Annual conference calls with various agencies ensures coordinated efforts. If high water or flood conditions are likely, MNR will issue public notices. Local flood forecasting messages can be viewed online through the Flood Forecasting and Warning Program.
Rainy, wet weekend
Meanwhile, the Trent-Severn Waterway issued a water level management update March 11.
It said, “Parks Canada’s water management team continues to actively monitor water levels, flows, and weather forecasts across the Trent-Severn Waterway. These factors are used to determine dam operations on a daily basis for the Trent-Severn Waterway.”
It said the weather forecast for Friday, Saturday and Sunday suggests a precipitation event of 15 to 30 mm combined with plus-temperatures approaching 10-15 degrees in the day and above zero at night. This will be followed by more seasonal temperatures.
“Rainfall and warm temperatures earlier in the week have, for the most part, primed the snow to be ready to runoff. Water levels and outflows are expected to increase at all locations due to the precipitation and snow melt.”
For Haliburton and northern areas, they specifically said, “most reservoir lakes remain at their respective winter-set dam configuration. Water levels on the lakes, in general, are below average and are leveling off after the recent rain-on-snow event. Flows on the Gull and Burnt Rivers are near average for this time of year and will likely increase with the rainfall and warm temperatures. The current snowpack is measured to be above average for this time of the year.”
Ted Spence, chair of the Coalition for Equitable Water Flow (CEWF), said barring sudden warm weather with extensive rainfall, he doesn’t think the Gull and Burnt Rivers will flood this year.
“Trent-Severn is very conscious of the flood risk in urban centres like Minden and they’ve got lots of capacity upstream of the Gull River right now to store additional water if they have to. At this stage, they’re certainly not worried about flooding … well, they’re concerned about flooding … but they don’t see a flood risk as being anywhere significant in the situation they’re dealing with.”
