Haliburton County’s population could grow anywhere from 0.9 to 1.5 per cent a year by 2051. That, coupled with the fact it’s estimated the percentage of people 65 and older will increase to 45 per cent of the population, up from 35 per cent, will present challenges for Highlands’ governments.
Consultants, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., on Feb. 26, tabled a long-term population, household, and
employment growth forecast for the County and its area municipalities.
The results are intended to guide decision making and policy for long-term planning to manage growth, municipal finances, and infrastructure, the consultants said. It will also form the basis of a development charges study that is underway.
Jamie Cook told councillors the County has experienced stronger permanent population growth over most of the past decade, largely driven by economic recovery since the global financial crisis of 2008-09.
Between 2020 and 2022, permanent population growth was accelerated by COVID-19, with ultra-low interest rates, and people from the Greater Golden Horseshoe converting seasonal dwellings to permanently-occupied homes. While that trend will continue, Cook said the pace is “expected to slow considerably.”
In addition, higher interest rates, and tighter financial conditions, are expected to cool the housing market for the next 12 months, but housing demand is forecast to remain strong over the next decade, with people leaving the city, and a growing regional economy.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. offered low, high, and medium growth scenarios of 0.9 per cent, 1.3 per cent and 1.5 per cent-a-year. The consultants said low growth is attributable to water and wastewater servicing capacity constraints. They calculated 28,200 people by 2051, up from 21,300 at the 2021 Census. The median scenario sees 31,000 people by 2051 and the high 33,100.
The consultants said moderate population growth is expected to create job opportunities for the knowledge-based
and creative economy, the service sector, and tourism; to a lesser extent, industrial jobs. There is also the prospect of County based workers being part of the job market in Kawartha Lakes, Simcoe County, and
Muskoka district “providing that suitable housing opportunities are available,” the report said.
Cook noted the “very acute” labour shortage in the Highlands presents another challenge.
They added with limited town water and septic, the majority of the housing will be out of town, low density, single detached dwellings. They recommended communities review servicing capacity and come up with some solutions to add to it.
To meet the growth, the County will need just over 2,000 new housing units by 2051 –or 68 new builds a year, with the consultants recommending a variety of housing options.
Not enough services
Over the past 15 years, more than 60 per cent of new residents have been between the ages of 55 and 74.
“This trend continues to place increasing pressures on the aging of the County’s population base, which is already
represented by a much higher share of seniors relative to the broader provincial average,” Cook said.
While projections include some adults between the ages of 20 and 54 moving in, the number of people 65-plus is expected to grow to 45 per cent of the population by 2051, compared to 35 per cent in 2021. Province-wide projections are just 21 per cent.
“The aging of the County’s population is anticipated to place increasing demand on the need for seniors’ housing, affordable housing, and community and social services throughout this area geared to older adults,” Cook said.
In order to attract more age groups, the Watson and Associates report also suggested “resident attraction efforts must be linked to not only housing accommodation, but also infrastructure, community services, urban amenities, and quality of life attributes that appeal to the younger mobile population, while not detracting from the
County’s attractiveness to older population segments.”
