Conservative MP Jamie Schmale, elected for a fourth time in the rejigged Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes riding in Monday’s federal election, said he noticed a major change while campaigning in the area over the past five weeks.
“An outpouring of support and interest in politics among youth. While door knocking, I’m noticing young Canadians are more dialed-in than I’ve seen in a long time. They do care about what happens, and what decisions made today mean for their future.
“They were voting for hope, voting for the fact they’d like to get a good job, buy a house, maybe start a family. If the polls and what we’re hearing tonight are true, it will show young people came out in force. And that many of them voted Conservative,” Schmale said.
His win was confirmed about an hour after polls closed in Ontario. As of 3 a.m. April 29, Schmale held a massive lead over Nell Thomas, the second-place Liberal candidate, having earned 42,056 votes in 310 of 314 reported polls. That was good enough for 56.8 per cent, Schmale’s highest return yet after taking 52.3 per cent in 2021, 49.05 per cent in 2019, and 44.83 per cent in 2015.
Thomas had the Liberals’ best showing in the riding in a quarter of a century, receiving 28,476 votes (38.5 per cent). The NDP’s Alyea Teel came third with 2,576 votes (3.5 per cent), and Michael Penman of the People’s Party of Canada getting 937 votes (1.3 per cent).
During his victory speech at The Cat and Fiddle in Lindsay, Schmale indicated it had been a tough campaign for him emotionally. He told how, daily, he encountered people struggling, forced to go without some basic necessities due to the cost of living.
“People are hurting. Seniors have seen their savings accounts dwindle. The paycheques of the working person are becoming less and less. We’re seeing record numbers at the food bank, with almost two million Canadians forced to ask for help to feed themselves and their families. The cost of housing has doubled, crime is up. There’s a feeling of helplessness, but also a real hunger for change,” Schmale said.
It wasn’t enough for the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, to win, with most major media outlets declaring a minority for Mark Carney’s Liberals, projecting they will fall five seats short of a majority with 167.
The Tories, meanwhile, are expected to grow their total seats from the 2021 vote, up to 145 from 119. The Bloc Quebecois is projecting 23 seats, down from 32, while the NDPs are major losers, expected to take seven seats, an 18-seat drop from four years ago. The Greens won one seat through leader Elizabeth May.
Voter turnout nationally has been pegged at 63.89 per cent, with 18.2 million of 28.5 million eligible voters casting a ballot. In Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes, that number increases to 71.02 per cent, with 74,045 of 104.259 registered electors voting.
SUB: Schmale predicts early vote
Depending on where the final numbers lie, Schmale said the public should brace themselves for another early election – likely in a couple of years, rather than the usual four.
With a minority, the Liberals will require support from other parties to pass new legislation. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, who announced his resignation following Monday’s vote, ended an NDP-Liberal coalition last September.
While disappointed in the result, Schmale said the fact it’s a Liberal minority and not majority is a silver lining.
“That will allow the Opposition a bit more say into how the government conducts itself… the government can’t just run its own agenda. This allows other voices to be heard too,” Schmale said.
Seeing his party finish as the bridesmaid for a fourth election in a row, Schmale acknowledged his job is a little harder as a member of the Opposition but said that isn’t going to stop him from advocating for Haliburton County and Kawartha Lakes.
He blamed U.S. president Donald Trump’s “tariff distractions” for the loss and projects more pain for Canadians under the leadership of prime minister-elect Mark Carney.
“For a lot of people, the last five years have been the hardest. That’s because of the decisions made by the Liberal government, which has been getting economic advice from Carney the whole time,” Schmale said.
While there’s no date for Parliament’s return, Schmale said he hopes to get back to Ottawa soon. The federal government has yet to sit in 2025.
“With everything we’re going through as a country, all the problems we’re facing, the sooner we can get back to doing what we should be doing, the better,” Schmale said, noting his first priority once back will be following up on leads for more affordable housing in the riding.
SUB: Thomas ‘thankful’
In a message posted to her social media channels, Thomas thanked everyone who contributed to a busy campaign that saw her visit most communities in the riding.
“Thank you from the bottom of our hearts to everyone who has supported us – whether by volunteering, sharing kind messages, or helping spread the word. Your dedication, generosity, and belief in what we are building together means more than we can express,” Thomas wrote. “We truly could not do this without you.”
She had the best showing of any Liberal candidate in the riding since John O’Reilly formed government in the late 90s and early 00s, almost doubling the numbers done by Judi Forbes in 2021, who earned 15,645 votes (23.1 per cent).
